E-Learning and Depression 2.0 Revisited

Prologue: Today’s post was meant to be a short piece about how the e-learning industry is faring in current market conditions, but as I carried out my research for the article, something a little more worrying emerged from the source information.

Now read on…

About a year ago, I began commenting on the affects of the current financial crisis on the e- learning industry; it's been a while, so I guess that it's about time I revisited the subject. In my post Recession and the Challenge to E-Learning in February 2008 I remarked that:

Historically, when a slowdown or organization rationalization occurs, the first against the wall are the folks in the PR, marketing, and training departments. Typically, individuals and organizations revert to previously-learned behaviors in tough times; this usually means going through the process of carrying out tried-and-tested, though not necessarily logical responses to the problems put in front of them. Outcome: tea and sympathetic chat, and the Training team get their pink slips / P45s. ...I reckon that this will be strategy undertaken by a significant number of organizations over the next year or so.

Sadly, it seems that my prediction was correct.

According to a recent Expertus/Training Industry, Inc. report: for 2009 over twice as many training professionals who responded to their survey said that they expected budget decreases rather than increases. Forty-eight percent expect their budgets to decrease in 2009, up from 41% in 2008. Less than one-fifth expect their budgets to increase in 2009, down from 31% in 2008. Similarly, since 2008 budgets were first approved, far more saw decreases (38%) than increases (11%) in funding and capital.

These data are reinforced by the findings of a 2009 Bersin & Associates study: B&A's Karen O'Leonard indicated that the U.S. corporate training market shrank from $58.5 billion in 2007 to $56.2 billion in 2008, the greatest decline in revenue in over a decade.

In a 23 January 2009 press release, Josh Bersin himself stated that

…to reduce costs, companies are switching from e-learning [my italics] to coaching, collaboration and on-the-job training methods

The press release also states:

Today’s business world demands a combination of formal and informal learning with an emphasis on collaboration, knowledge sharing, social networking, coaching, and mentoring. While formal, instructor-led training is not going away, it is becoming a smaller and smaller percentage of training budgets.

This shift in organizations' thinking and strategy merits discussion in it's own right, so I will return to the topic once I have given it more consideration.

However, I have to say that I'm not encouraged by the inaccurate terminology Mr. Bersin used in the press release: I want to know - how do Bersin & Associates define ‘e-learning’? Based upon the above statement, collaboration and knowledge-sharing in particular, but also mentoring, coaching, and OTJ training are not categories of e-learning.

I’m sure you have your own favorite definition of e-learning – I’ve included mine below – but regardless of how you define it, you are in the e-learning domain if the learning materials are

• networked
• delivered to end-users via a computer using standard internet technology
• focused on the broadest view of learning

By e-learning, Bersin & Associates of course mean "e-training" - those superannuated, expensive page-turner style self-paced courseware libraries provided by vendors like SmartForce and HMH. You may argue that I am merely fussing over semantics, and that such terminology is unimportant. Tomayto / tomahto.

When questions are investigated using quantitative analysis, the Scientific Method is being used. Contingent with that is a healthy skepticism of the assumptions and conclusions made by the investigator. This is the essence of progress, acquiring new knowledge, or correcting and integrating previous knowledge. To be termed scientific, a method of inquiry must be based on gathering observable, empirical and measurable evidence subject to specific principles of reasoning and criticism.

In this context I would assert that precise categorization of terms is an essential part of communicating meaning accurately. If you consider that e-learning is

The continuous assimilation of knowledge and skills by adults stimulated by synchronous and asynchronous learning events – and sometimes knowledge management outputs – which are authored, delivered engaged with, supported and administered using internet technologies,

(Morrison, D. 2004, p.4)

then we must say that the Bersin statement contradicts itself.

Based upon the Bersin & Associates data (see Table 1), what seems to be occurring is a contraction in the use by organizations of one e-learning modality (the self-paced page-turner - in a sense the methodology most aligned with traditional instructor-led workplace learning), and the growth or expansion of a range of other modalities of e-learning, based upon non-formal and informal structures, Web 2.0 principles, and the removal of intermediaries in the workplace learning & development supply chain.

Table 1 Distribution of training categories (after Bersin & Associates, 2009)

More...
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References:

Bersin & Associates (2009) 2009 Corporate Learning Factbook Reveals 11% Decline in Corporate Training Spending [Internet] Available from: http://www.bersin.com/News/Content.aspx?id=8438 Accessed 24 January 2009

Expertus (2008) Measuring Learning as Budgets Tighten [Internet] Available from: http://www.trainingefficiency.com/system/files/Survey+Results_Learning+Measurement_+Expertus_Nov08.pdf Accessed 12 January 2009

Frauenheim, E. (2009) Training Is Taking a Beating in Recession, Studies Find Workforce Management. [Internet] Available from: http://www.workforce.com/section/00/article/26/12/95.php Accessed 23 January 2009

Morrison, D. (2004) E-Learning Strategies: how to get implementation and delivery right first time Chichester: John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Economic downturn – a Systems Interpretation?

Sadly, I don’t have much time to blog this week, as I’m facilitating a symposium later in the week. I’ll talk more about the event in the future, but today I just want to point you towards Donald ‘Plan B’ Clark’s article concerning the role of leadership training in our current economic troubles. Real soul food for thought, in my view.

The author discusses how

the cult of ‘leadership’ contributed to megalomaniac behaviour that ultimately led to the financial crisis… All of this leadership lark is quite recent. For years we got by with management training, good old sensible stuff about being nice, clear and organised. Then, around the Millennium, the training world went all evangelical about ‘Leadership’.
Now the last thing you want to do with a bloated ego is feed it a diet of hubris. These guys […] think they’re omniscient and omnipotent.

Mr. Clark provides a well-structured, comprehensive, and frequently hilarious analysis of the snake oil of “leadership” and those who subscribe to it.

While I don’t have time to discuss this in more detail, think about the subject in the context of Peter Senge’s notion of learning organisations and systems thinking.

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References:

Clark, D. (2008) Leadership training – cause of credit crunch? [Internet] Available from: http://donaldclarkplanb.blogspot.com/2008/11/leadership-training-cause-of-credit.html Accessed 12 December 2008

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E-Learning Adoption in Organizations: Diffusion of Innovation, Part One

As the globalized economy becomes more complex (especially in the context of the continuing financial crisis) it becomes increasingly important to understand the educational processes that lead people and organizations to accept new ideas, and to adopt them into their activities. I have written before about how I believe that e-learning is a recession-proof industry, in that the performance (and ultimately revenue-generating) benefits accrued by organizations that implement e-learning strategies will enable them to retain the flexibility needed to survive in the post-industrial world.

In ‘Recession and the Challenge to E-learning’ I asserted that

through familiarization and use, learners expectations are more reasonable about what can be achieved (and perhaps more importantly how it can be achieved through digitally mediated delivery) ...But is it perceived as a necessity or a luxury?

When describing e-learning from a decade ago I stated:

Over-compressed images, poor animation, and very poor audio - hardly the immersive learning solution that e-learning flattered to promise at the time. Assuming the learner could access the content successfully, the chances were that the PC (for it was always a PC) that they were using to view their content was processing and displaying the date at a rate that we wouldn't find acceptable on a PDA now (screen-size excluded). Pentium or pre-Pentium processors, 8-bit sound cards, 16 colors, 800x600 pixel displays. And so on.

and I quoted “e-Learning Guru” Kevin Kruse, who described 2001 as the year that

...brought the harsh, steep slope of unfulfilled promises. Several high-profile providers shut their doors while many more announced large-scale layoffs in the face of missed revenue targets and crashing stock prices. E-learning advocates retreated to the more defensible ground of "blended learning. This year [went] down as the Trough of Despair.

Figure 1. The E-learning Hype Cycle

As learning professionals I suggested, we could see the potential, but our imaginations exceeded the available technology.

In that post, I provided what I would call a Structural Functionalist approach (in the anthropological sense) to the topic. This perspective can be described as

the contribution made by any phenomenon to a larger system of which the phenomenon is a part.

(Hoult. 1969. p.139)

Over the next few blog entries, I will revisit this subject from the Functionalist or organizational angle, looking in particular at the concepts of Diffusion of Innovation, social proof, how new ideas, practices, and processes are integrated into organizations, and how learning professionals can operationalize e-learning to align with organizational goals.

More…

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References:

Hoult, T.F. (1969) Dictionary of Modern Sociology. Rowman & Littlefield Publishers.

Kruse, K. (2002) The State of e-Learning: Looking at History with the Technology Hype Cycle. [Internet] Available from: http://www.e-learningguru.com/articles/hype1_1.htm [Accessed 12th February 2008]

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Recession, the challenge to e-learning, and HMH in Ireland

I'll start this post by issuing a mixed metaphor alert: today, we're going to talk about an elephant in the room, which also happens to be an 800lb gorilla.

Intrigued? Now read on...

Back in February this year, I wrote the first of my occasional series on Recession and the challenge to e-learning; in that first piece, I concluded by suggesting that

in the era of $100 a barrel oil and the value of virtual classrooms; the ROI of e-learning as opposed to traditional methods; even the impact of traditional ways of teaching on the environment ("e-learning" becomes "eco-learning" anyone?).

Based on an announcement made last Thursday 10th September 2008, I can now assert that we are beginning to see that there is validity in this conclusion. Based on the level of investment one e-learning enterprise has committed to developing the industry in the medium- to long term, the market in now in a place to support the proposition that the ROI on e-learning makes sense, and generates profit.

E-learning giant Houghton Mifflin Harcourt (HMH) – formerly known as Riverdeep – is to create 450 jobs at a new R&D headquarters in Dublin. Riverdeep had its origins in Dublin in 1995 and under the leadership of Barry O’Callaghan became a global name in the e-learning K-12 market space. As an educational publisher, HMH has over 100,000 customers, generating approximately US$2.5bn in annual revenues, profits in the region of US$1bn, and 50 per cent market share of the US K-12 market, the world’s largest education market.

HMH is to establish its global e-learning R&D centre in the greater Dublin area, creating 450 "high-value" jobs over the next five years.

Fiona O’Carroll, senior vice-president, Digital Products R&D at HMH confirmed the Irish Government’s vision to create a knowledge economy by investing in people, research and innovation was a key factor in the company’s decision.

The new R&D centre will be a focal point for e-learning and educational innovation. Employees, partner companies and collaborating universities will be attracted by the quality of research, people, innovation and commercialisation activity in the centre.

The Centre will involve establishing a globally networked team in Ireland with team members and innovation partners based in the US and around the globe. The company said these jobs should be very attractive to seasoned technology professionals, engineering and technology graduates, highly creative thinkers and innovators in the e-learning space.

As I've said in the past, Ireland has a vibrant technology and knowledge-based industrial economy, and one of the domains we excel in, is in e-learning - I guess most people in the industry have heard of SmartForce and Electric Paper, for example. These large companies notwithstanding, there are over fifty 'other' e-learning development houses in the country. Not bad for a country with a population of under 5 million people.

In my view, this investment will prove to be a game-changer. As it is, you could say that HMH are the only game in (e-learning) town - if they manage the innovations and outputs afforded by this R&D centre correctly, HMH will grow to become the Google of e-learning. Indeed, the Google approach (especially the famed "20 per cent time") is a perfect model for any knowledge-based organization that wants to stimulate growth through innovative new products invented and developed by their own subject matter experts. Similarly, this R&D centre will provide the organization with the potential benefits of having an audience for life: if HMH products have the skill and facility to instil the joy of learning in the kids that they currently provide e-learning solutions for, they will have an audience for life, given that these Digital Natives (click on the link for Marc Prensky's seminal article) will grow up associating the brand with discovering knowledge and the fun of learning. In essence, we can say that the company has the potential to mould a whole generation of learners, which is an extraordinary business opportunity, but also a huge responsibility.

Do I now hear the distant trumpet of an approaching elephant?

I do...

Just an observation really. Rumours of this investment have on the jungle telegraph here in Ireland for some time now, and I was originally going to post on this topic last Thursday (the day of the announcement).

An African elephant (sans room)

I held back, because I wanted to see what reaction would come for the Irish L&D and e-learning blogosphere. I'm disappointed to say that no-one has posted a reaction to the largest investment in their industry, ever.

I'm sure people are still formulating their thoughts - I for one want to read how others in the e-learning industry here in Ireland are responding to this investment.

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References:

HMH to Create 450 Jobs and Base Global R&D Headquarters in Dublin. Enterprise Ireland Press Release. [Internet] Available from: http://www.enterprise-ireland.com/eicms/interiorpage.aspx?NRMODE=Published&NRORIGINALURL=%2FNews%2FPress%2BReleases%2F2008%2FPressSep102008.htm&NRNODEGUID={077DB63F-4925-4D96-BEB3-364BF11C8EB1}&NRCACHEHINT=Guest

[Accessed 10th September 2008]

Ireland wins €350m HMH deal after tough worldwide battle. Irish Independent. [Internet] Available from: http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/ireland-wins-8364350m-hmh-deal--after-tough-worldwide-battle-1473370.html

[Accessed 10th September 2008]

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The Half-Life of the Knowledge Worker

If you don’t like change, you’re going to like irrelevance even less.

Gen. Eric Shinseki

The US and EuroZone economies are in recession, China is ascendant, Russia is asserting it's regional dominance, all the knowledge jobs are going to India, and it hasn't stopped raining for two weeks.

As you know if you're a regular reader of The E-Learning Curve Blog, I occasionally reflect on e-learning, the economy, and the effect that the one has on the other.

This time I have decided to discuss the emergence and current role of knowledge workers, how this role is changing, and will come to propose a definition for a new type of worker that seems to emerging, particularly in the traditional home of knowledge work, North America and Europe.

Now read on...

In 1959 Peter Drucker coined the term “knowledge worker” to describe

one who works primarily with information or one who develops and uses knowledge in the workplace. It is performed by subject-matter specialists in all areas of an organisation;

(1973, p.839)

their tools are the knowledge assets they use in an organisation. Knowledge workers are characterised by a number of traits, among them the ability to extract and synthesize key information to enhance innovation and productivity.

It is “generally accepted” (Drucker, 2006, p.165) that the knowledge workers’ expertise in their role is the starting point for enhancing productivity, quality and performance. If knowledge workers are to continue contributing to an organisation and the economy at large, their knowledge must remain up-to-date. Ongoing training and continuous learning must accompany gains in performance; “the greatest benefit of training comes not from learning something new but from doing better what we already do well” (2006, p.165).

Three years later, Fritz Machlup published The Production and Distribution of Knowledge in the United States. In concert with Drucker's work, we can say that the early 1960's marked the beginning of the study of the post-industrial information society. Machlup coined the phrase "knowledge economy" to include everything from stationery and typewriters, advertising, and presidential addresses - in fact, anything that involved the activity of telling anyone anything - to evaluate the use of knowledge technologies to produce economic benefits.

The transformation to a knowledge economy continued throughout the rest of the 20th century, especially following the invention and growth of the Internet.

Especially in the wake of the invention and growth of the Internet, we can say that today's global economy is characterized as being in transition to a knowledge economy, and an extension of what we can call an information society. This transition requires that the rules and practices that determined success in the industrial economy need to be rewritten in an interconnected, globalized economy where knowledge resources such as know-how, expertise, and intellectual property are more critical than other economic resources such as land, natural resources, and even manpower. According to analysts of the knowledge economy, these rules need to be re-factored at the levels of companies, organizations, and industries in the context of managing knowledge and (possibly more imperatively) at the level of government- or public policy.

Due to the increasingly technological nature of industrial growth and the emergence of globalization as a influencing factor on the world economy of the last 60 years, there is an ongoing and increasing requirement for an academically capable workforce. As a result, knowledge workers are now estimated to outnumber all other workers in North America by at least four-to-one (Haag et al, 2006, pg. 4).

...and at this point I will conclude for today, as this is a blog post, not an essay and I'm sure, dear reader, that you have other things to be getting on with. In tomorrow's post, I will continue to develop the concept of the half-life of the knowledge worker and begin to look at how the Asian Tigers have superceded the advanced industrial nations of the 20th century.

In the meantime, as I started today's piece with a quote, I think that for the sake of symmetry I should conclude this article with another excerpt:

Turning and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;

W.B. Yeats The Second Coming

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References:

Drucker, P. F. (1973) Management: Tasks, Responsibilities, Practices. New York, Harper & Row

Drucker, P. F. (2006) Classic Drucker. Boston, MA. Harvard Business School Publishing Corporation

Haag, S. Cummings, M. McCubbrey, D. Pinsonneault, A. & Donovan, R. (2006) Management Information Systems For the Information Age (3rd Ed.). London, McGraw-Hill Education

Machlup, F. (1962) The Production and Distribution of Knowledge in the United States. Princeton University Press

Yeats, W. B. (1920) The Second Coming. The Norton Anthology of English Literature, 8th Edition. W. W. Norton & Co.

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E-Learning and the Economic Downturn: A Salutary Lesson

And Lo! it came to pass that a friend of mine who would describe herself as a training practitioner based out of Hartford, CT. found herself bereft of employment, for the economic downturn that is called Recession was cast upon the land, and the days were dark.

Straitly was she in need of employment, forasmuch as without an income, the door of her house would be riven and the walls of her home would fall down flat, and the silver, and the gold, and the vessels of brass and of iron, they would take from the treasury of the house.

And it came to be that by the power of the mighty word processor and the e-mail, posted she her résumé unto many an organization, including unto those that call themselves Financial Institutions.

And so it was that with mighty trumpets the Tribe of Human Resources responded to her. And they declared unto her that without a special power called "financial experience" she was as a beggar cast into the night, and they smote her down into the good earth with the jawbone of the Ox .

And she was afraid.

And so it was that she said this tale unto me, and she beseeched unto me "What is this Financial Experience in Fund Management that they speak of?"

And I said unto her:

"Verily, fear not these Children of the Almighty Dollar!

For it has come to pass that they are responsible for many a woe among the people, including the fearsome Enron Scandal, and the lending of the silver and the gold in the Sub-Prime Sector, and the Dealing upon the Inside, and the Credit Crunch, and Bear Stearns and Northern Rock shall be as naught. The Prince of Citigroup and the chief of the tribe of Merrill Lynch will rightly fall upon their swords, and they will be mocked when they speak of Golden Parachutes, for they spoke not of fiscal rectitude, and the Walls of The Street did tremble.

Believe ye in the power of Education and Technology, and the Learning that is called 'E'!

For in days to come, the Children of the Almighty Dollar will see that they too are mere knowledge workers, like unto all others in different sectors of the economy.

I say unto thee, they will cry across the land:

"Oh woe are we who were blind! We could not see that learning and development skills are cross-discipline! And frankly we could have done with a bit of expertise from outside the narrow confines of the financial world considering the fix we're in! We thought ourselves as blessèd among ordinary knowledge workers, with skills in software and pharmaceuticals and such.

Oh! Vanity! Pride! In our ignorance of the meaning of the global economy we have been led astray from the path of righteousness!"

For during the Boom Years they did utter nonsense and PR, and the diviners they call stockbrokers saw lies; the analysts told false dreams, and gave empty consolation.

Therefore the People of Finance wander like sheep; they are afflicted for want of a shepherd. Go unto them with thine expertise in workplace learning and say unto them "WISDOM AND KNOWLEDGE SHALL BE THE STABILITY OF THY TIMES!"

And nail ye them to the wall with high Per Diem consultancy rates, for revenge is sweet.

Here Endeth The Lesson.

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E-Learning and the Economic Downturn : Why isn't the hammer falling?

After a weekend of listening to The Works by Queen, I've been trying to find a way to squeeze one of the album's song titles into a blog post, and by Jove, I think I've got it!

Now read on...

Today I'm returning to one of my occasional topics - tracking the state of the e-learning industry through the economic downturn / recession of 2008. In my first post on this topic I outlined my views on potential scenarios and described what in my view differentiated this depressed market from the post- Dot Com era. Following up on that, I presented the end-of-year financials of two of the biggest organizations in the industry, and potential difficulties they may face in 08H2.

Today, I'm investigating stakeholder sentiment (in the form of opinions from learning professionals as presented in their blogs, columns, and forums). And the question I have to ask is "Why don't people feel that the hammer will fall (sic) on the e-learning industry this time around?"

The prevailing feeling seems to be one of optimism, and that this is in fact a time of opportunity for the industry:

Sam S. Adkins, Chief Research Officer of Ambient Insight suggests that

According to a new longitudinal study by Ambient Insight on the private investment trends in the learning technology industry, capital is flowing at the highest rate since the last recession...

• Funding in the first quarter of 2008 has reached 64% of the 2007 total and now totals more than all the investments made in the entire year of 2006
• Investment in Self-paced eLearning products designed for the corporate buying segment dominated between 1999 and 2003, but funding for these types of products has dropped dramatically in the last four years and now trails other product types
• Digital reference-ware, Collaboration-based Learning, social network-based learning (peer-generated), and learning services firms, respectively, are now attracting the largest investments
• Funding for Simulation-based Learning and Game-based Learning products, particularly virtual world platforms designed for young children, has increased significantly in 2007. This trend continues in the first quarter of 2008 and this product type is now on track to outpace investment in Self-paced eLearning

At G-Cube Solutions, Ankit Jain asserts:

...[the] growth of e-Learning is the function of two important factors. Factor Number One is the competitive cost advantage and Second Factor is the enabling qualities such as enhanced reach and learning impact.

In a 'normal' US economy, he predicts that

[e-learning] not only substitutes class room training but achieves better results to the learners.

Should a recession develop, he considers

Lower revenues and lower profits for US corporations certainly means cut in L&D spending. However, I have strong views that e-Learning in relative terms is likely to benefit from recessionary conditions as it is a proven cost friendly alternative to a traditional class room. ... In my views the share of e-Learning hours will increase to over 40-50% from current 30% due to two factors - lowered base of number of training hours (as expected during recession) and increased share of e-Learning as such. ... [the] e-Learning industry in general has a great future irrespective of US recession.

On Learning Town, Brett Andersen of The Bank of America says

With financial cutbacks come greater restrictions, such as hiring freezes, significantly lower budgets, etc. And with less money and fewer resources, training and development employees have the challenging OPPORTUNITY to be more creative, manage their expenses more wisely and, in many ways, work in ways perhaps should have been considered before the economic challenges and perhaps should be considered after the economic challenges. Though I would not want these challenges to remain with us for long, I believe strongly that there is something for each of us to learn and to develop within ourselves, our teams, our organizations and our industry.

On the same forum, David Barton of Michelin North America makes this statement:

For the first time in the 13 years that I have been working with technology enabled learning in North America, our global learning and development group is seriously exploring it's use.

Similarly Maya Frost thinks that "In A Recession, Online Education May Be A Smart Investment."

Why? Because when people get nervous about their job security, they start looking around at their options. Many may consider taking online courses to prepare for the worst and position themselves more strategically for the next career move.

I'll be analysing why such a broad range of people are so bullish about the e-learning industry over the next few days.

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E-Learning and the Economic Downturn: April Update

It's just over two months since I posted on Recession and the Challenge to E-learning. It's a subject that I said I would monitoring as the "Credit Crunch" became a downturn, which may or may not lead to a recession.

As a reminder, at the time I suggested that the appropriate social and economic innovations required to support e-learning were now sufficiently embedded (compared to 2001) to ensure the e-learning industry would certainly survive and maybe even thrive an economic downturn. I tempered this assertion by asking

will the positive economic, organisational, and social value of e-learning outweigh traditional human responses to recessionary times? What strategies can we use to ensure the survival of and even the growth of e-learning as an industry in these changing times?

Now read on...

Some preliminary evidence is now emerging which may indicate that the E-learning Industry is doing quite in the current economic climate. Electric News Net (ENN) has reported that SkillSoft and ThirdForce two of the largest Commercial-Off-The-Shelf (COTS) producers of e-learning content have posted profits for the last quarter and the year, respectively.

According to ENN,

e-learning firm SkillSoft posted another great set of quarterly results with revenues up by 34 percent and profits nearly quadrupling. Coming off the back of a third quarter where profits nearly trebled SkillSoft managed to perform even better in the fourth quarter as it posted profits of USD34.3 million, up from USD8.2 million for the same quarter the previous year.

SkillSoft say that the increase in revenue was down to:

• higher-than-planned rates of contract retention and renewal
• incremental revenues of USD4.6 million related to the amortisation of deferred revenue acquired by SkillSoft in the acquisition of NETg
• incremental revenues from NETg customer contracts which were renewed after acquisition

ThirdForce has seen its operating profit up by 160 per cent for 2007, while revenue increased by 35 per cent for the same period. Since acquiring MindLeaders, the US has become a key market for ThirdForce, and the company says it is targeting US companies in the sub-Fortune 1,000 sector. In the UK, ThirdForce is continuing to see growth in its core hospitality market, adding a number of multi-year contracts with major clients during 2007.

Analysis
At face value, these results look very positive, but these revenue reports are now a matter of history. Certainly in the case of ThirdForce, the results are based on performance before the current downturn really began to bite, and as such I don't know if the results can be interpreted in terms of how the organization is performing in 08H1. It will be interesting to see how their strategy of growing their presence in the sub-Fortune 1,000 marketspace, given the fact that both SkillSoft and ThirdForce are headquartered in the Euro Zone, and given the current Dollar weakness against the Euro.

Similarly, a presence in the UK market would have at one time been viewed as a triple-bound low-risk revenue generator, but again, the current Sterling to Euro differential may mitigate against growth in that territory.

Dilemma
Consider the dilemma for both organizations: they both have substantial interests in territories with weakening currencies. Their sales and revenue numbers for 2008 - say arbitrarily $10M or €7.7M (at December 2007 exchange rates) - would have been agreed in 2007Q3, and strategies would have been put in place to meet those objectives. Now, even if the sales teams hit their targets numerically, they are struggling in a weakened Dollar situation where their $10M is now worth €6.3M - a substantial shortfall in revenue.

However, what's more interesting to me is that both organizations' customers intend to either renew or extend their current contracts with the two content providers. In my view, this indicates the increasingly positive reaction to and growing reliance upon e-learning as means of meeting employee training and development requirements. Is it trend that will be reflected across markets generally?

We'll see.

It's still early days, and no doubt I will be returning to this topic presently.

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E-Learning and economic downturns...

I'm getting some interesting feedback from a variety of sources on my blog post Recession and the challenge to e-learning. Steve McKenzie over at Eduspaces has commented that he considers e-learning to be a "recession buster ...on balance costs for institutions and individuals can be saved."

I completely agree with Steve's assessment; the challenge as I see it, is for e-learning practitioners to address traditional/institutional ways of thinking in organizations about how to leverage the benefits of e-learning - break the habits of a lifetime in a sense.

Most decision makers (i.e. C-level executives) in organizations are from a generation that would not have extensively used e-learning during their formative years. In my experience, they become much more risk-averse during economic downturns and push back on what they see as innovation in tough times.

I'm reminded of a conversation I had with a VP about two years ago. I was working on a proposal to introduce an on-demand pre-classroom training module for a ILT course - a bit of blended learning to reduce the workload on instructors to ensure that learners were of an appropriate skill level to actually attend the course in question. His response to the proposal was along the lines of "it's all very well being leading edge, but we don't have to be bleeding edge."

Now, this was hardly an all-singing, all-dancing 3D PLE we were proposing here, just a little 30-minute Flash-based presentation. I think that the assertion this VP made represents that we, as learning professionals, have to be cognisant of more conservative attitudes that exist in the workplace, and we need to develop strategies to counter such lines of argument.

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